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Week 12 best bets for 3 games including Broncos vs. Panthers

Week 12 best bets for 3 games including Broncos vs. Panthers

Follow Chris Raybon Action app Get all his bets sorted.


NFL Week 12 Odds and Picks

pick up
Panthers +2.5 (bet for pick’em)
best book
the time
1 p.m. ET

Chris Reuben: The Broncos are 0-4 in true road games (their 21-17 win over Jacksonville came at a neutral site). Given the poor quality of their quarterback play and coaching, Denver needs every edge it can get. It is extended by hitting both sides of the ball.

On offense, the Broncos started left tackle Garrett Boles (IR; leg), starting center Lloyd Cushenberry III (IR; groin) and Jerry Jewdy (ankle) and KJ Hamler (hamstring).

Losing Bolles and Cushenberry makes things easier for a Carolina pass rush that has come alive for 3.0 sacks per game over the past four games. The Panthers averaged 1.4 sacks per game through their first seven games. And without Judy and Hamler, it should be easy for Carolina to move Courtland Sutton along with top corner Jesse Horn, who is allowing 3.6 yards per target and a 31.3 passer rating on 320 coverage snaps.

On defense, the Broncos are missing key contributors at every level. Starting cornerback Ronald Darby (ACL) and nickel CB K’Won Williams (knee) are on IR. Safety Caden Stearns (hip) is also on injured reserve, which proved to be a net loss as Stearns (76.7 PFF grade) moved behind Justin Simmons (70.0), who returned as Stearns went down.

Denver once ranked 15th in pass rush rate (22.7%) and 16th sack rate (6.8%) Randy Gregory (IR; knee) and Bradley Chubb (traded), who combined for 45 pressures and eight sacks.

Like PJ Walker, Sam Darnold should be an upgrade over Baker Mayfield. Mayfield couldn’t play within this system, registering a league-worst 60.0% completion rate from a clear pocket. For context, Walker had 64.8% and Darnold 66.7% last season.

With Mayfield on the bench, the Panthers’ offense should be able to do enough to outscore a Denver squad that is scoring a league-low 14.7 points per game and has been held to 16 points or fewer in eight of 10 contests.

The Panthers averaged 22.2 points in non-Mayfield starts, with at least 21 points in four of five starts. They topped Darnold’s 16 points in eight of his 11 starts last season.

According to our Action Labs data, house dogs under 42 are 44-29-1 (60%) ATS since 2018.

What is QuickSlip?

QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically load their bet slips into FanDuel Sportsbook.


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pick up
Below 43.5 (from 41)
best book
the time
1 p.m. ET

Chris Reuben: This game is set up as a defensive battle.

When the Ravens are on offense, they want to run the ball (30.4 Quick effort per game; seventh-most) and shorten games (average 30.36 seconds between games; 31st). Mike Caldwell’s defense has performed well against opponents’ ground games, ranking ninth in rushing success rate allowed (39.3%) and 12th in expected points added per rush (-0.0184).

Even if the Ravens want to take advantage of a Jacksonville defense that ranks 31st in DVOA against the pass, they’ll be forced to do so with a passing game that isn’t in peak form.

They will be without left tackle Ronnie Stanley (ankle), whose 90.0 PFF pass-blocking grade ranks second among 77 qualifiers. tackles. They continue to be without No. 1 wide receiver Rashod Bateman (IR; foot) and lose only No. 2 tight end Isaiah Probable (ankle) — who helped offset the loss of Bateman with 18 the catch, 206 yards and 2 TDs — at least for this week. Their current top two wide receivers, Devin DuVernay (hamstring) and DeMarcus Robinson (hip), are both listed as questionable after missing practice this week.

The Ravens defense has gone to another level since the acquisition of linebacker Roquan Smith and the return of edge rusher Tyus Bowser, allowing just 16 points in two games. Baltimore should be able to handle a mediocre Jags offense that ranks 21st in points per game (21.6).

Opposing offenses often struggle to deal with the heat and humidity in Jacksonville, which has helped the Jaguars to just 14 points per game at home compared to 24.8 away.

According to our Action Labs data, Trevor Lawrence is 10-2 (83%) all-time at home, averaging 8.5 points. That includes a perfect 4-0 mark this season.

What is QuickSlip?

QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically load their bet slips into FanDuel Sportsbook.


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pick up
Brown +3.5 (from +3)
best book
the time
1 p.m. ET

Chris Reuben: Rain and 12-plus mph winds are expected in Cleveland, favoring the Browns’ rushing attack, which ranks fourth in DVOA.

Their biggest weakness is defending the run (32nd in DVOA), which isn’t a problem against the Bucs as they rank last in rushing yards per game (70.1) and per carry (3.1).

The Bucs have won by more than three points just four times this season, while the Browns have lost just three times despite a 3-7 record. The Browns have scored at least 23 points in six of 10 games and held the Bucs to under 23 in nine of 10.

As I mentioned earlier, underdogs by at least 3.5 are 49-22 (69%) ATS this season with 47 or fewer games.

And regardless of total, fade public Even more field goal favorites, like the Bucs, who received 64% of bets through Saturday afternoon, have been more profitable. According to our Action Labs data, dogs don’t get 46-19-1 (71%) ATS over half of betting tickets.

What is QuickSlip?

QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically load their bet slips into FanDuel Sportsbook.


» Back to Table of Contents «



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